Saturday, November 12, 2011

Determination of Share Price Movement

Investors observing patterns in stock market prices are known as technical analyst and chartist. They believe that there is a predictable pattern that moves overtime for the stock prices. The technical analysts also believe that they can earn abnormal profit if they timed their investment decision following the analysis of the pattern.

In the market efficiency hypothesis, investors believe that stock prices move in a random fashion i.e. prices in the market change with the availability of the information. There is no predictable pattern of the movements.

The technical analysis in this case is not consistent with the efficient market hypothesis this is because of the assumptions of the efficient market hypothesis. Firstly, EMH assume that the market possess the same available information as the information arrives. This enables the market to interpret quickly the available information to act in a consensus manner. In that case, it is impossible to earn abnormal profit among the investors.

The EMH, the strong form efficient efficiency the investors may only make abnormal profit if private information illegally obtained. In technical analyst, the private information about when prices will rise or fall may of little use in the EMH, mainly because the information is not encouraged. This form will be violated should the technical analyst is correct about the timing of the stock price movement.

The weak and semi-strong form efficiency will observe price movement with publicly available information and past information respectively and as such the prices move in a random manner.

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